Published. Versioned. Defensible.
An underwriting reviewer reads this page to decide whether the data is defensible enough to put behind a claim reserve. Every formula is here. Every sample size is here. The version stamp is here. Verisk's Xactimate methodology sits behind NDA. CoreLogic publishes summary papers without sample sizes. HomeQuotr publishes the formulas, the caps, and the version key in plain text below.
HomeQuotr publishes its full pricing methodology. Five point seven million U.S. residential building permits, classified to six trades across 100 metros, aggregated into median and percentile pricing with a 1.8210 IQR confidence interval at N at or above 30. Every aggregate row carries the version key hq_methodology_v1.0_2026 and a permit count quality score from 0 to 100.
Inputs
- 5,721,805 U.S. residential building permits.
- 100 U.S. metros: Tier A (17, weekly refresh), Tier B (18, monthly), Tier C (12, monthly), Tier D (53, monthly).
- Six trades: HVAC, roofing, electrical, plumbing, foundation/structural, solar.
- Source documents: municipal permit portals, state contractor license registries, SAM.gov, IRS Form 5695 (federal Solar Investment Tax Credit), BLS PublicAPI (CPI-U, PPI commodities, OES per-MSA wage).
Filtering
Residential-only per-metro filter; commercial permits excluded under jurisdiction-specific rules. Per-trade valuation caps protect the median from commercial-misclassified or scope-bundled tail values.
| Trade | Valuation cap |
|---|---|
| HVAC | $30,000 |
| Electrical | $25,000 |
| Plumbing | $20,000 |
| Roofing | $40,000 |
| Foundation/Structural | $50,000 |
| Solar | $80,000 |
Permit count quality gates govern publication.
| Permit count | Behavior |
|---|---|
| Under 30 | No city-specific aggregate. State or metro fallback shown with explicit geographic scope label. |
| 30 to 99 | Published with permit count surfaced inline. |
| 100 and above | Published with full distribution histogram. |
Statistical aggregation
Confidence interval on the median
IQR-based CLT robust standard error. Lower bound clamped to zero. Valid for N at or above 30. Sub-category floor N=15 borderline, flagged in the severity sub-document.
CI = median ± 1.8210 × (p75 − p25) / sqrt(n)
Permit count quality score
Equal-thirds composite of sample size, recency, and source verifiability. Clamped 0 to 100.
score = (100 × LEAST(1, LOG10(n) / 3)
+ 100 × share_within_365d
+ 100 × share_with_source_url) / 3Severity distribution
20 bins over p5 through p99, returned as [{bucket, min, max, count}] JSONB matching the distribution_buckets field shape so one client parser handles both.
Time-series normalization (Scale+ tier)
BLS CPI-U deflates nominal permit values into the current-quarter dollar. PPI commodities (steel, copper, lumber, asphalt shingles, refrigerant) overlay material-cost shifts. OES per-MSA per-trade wage data overlays labor-cost shifts. The comparable observation for a 2022 Dallas HVAC permit at $7,400 is the deflated value, not the nominal one. The normalization is gated to Scale and above because actuarial filings need indexed series, not nominal series.
Versioning
Every pricing_aggregates row stamps methodology_version = 'hq_methodology_v1.0_2026'. A version bump requires a sub-document committed to this directory, a row added below, and a 30-day reviewer comment window before the new key takes effect. Reviewers can pin a tier contract to a specific version key.
What HomeQuotr does not do
- No national averages backfilled into city-specific cells.
- No consumer-submitted prices.
- No contractor self-reported rates.
- No third-party cost-guide estimates.
- No proprietary normalization that cannot be reproduced from the formulas above.
How to challenge a number
Every row exposes n, date range, source URLs, confidence interval, and version. Disagree with a number? Email kevin@homequotr.com with the row, the alternative reference, and the disagreement. Disputes and responses are archived for review on request.
Versioned sub-documents
Severity methodology v1.0
All tiersIQR-based confidence interval derivation, valuation cap rationale, sub-category floor analysis.
Time-series normalization v1.0
Scale+CPI-U deflation, single-dominant commodity PPI per trade, cross-metro OES labor adjustment. Returned at Scale and above.
Peril mapping v1.0
Enterprise+Eight-peril taxonomy and trade-to-peril mapping with frequency weights and severity adjustments.
Frequency modeling v1.0
Enterprise+Poisson lambda estimation per city-trade with chi-squared exact CIs and 12-month trailing surfacing.
Version stamp
- Current:
hq_methodology_v1.0_2026 - Effective: 2026-04-25
- Next review: 2027-Q1 or earliest material change.
The full API response shape lives at /api/docs.